PROOF: CHANCES OF LIFE ON MARS BETTER THAN
I use two initially convenient objects:
(a) manta ray with tail
(b) fish statue
Here is the proof that probability that they are "simply rocks" is less
than 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 !
Lets do some math, using the "manta ray with tail" picture.
Lets assume that there is 10,000,000,000 rocks that can be considered
for fossils /fossil like rocks/ in the area covered by rovers /this is more than 100 per square meter./
Lets assume that each of them has a small rock attached, which will
play the beginning of the "tail".
Lets assume that there is 1/100 chance that small rock has an another
small rock attached to the right side of it and having the right size, so
that it forms next bone of the tail. A so on, and so forth. :)
Since the "tail" has 12 bones, expected number of existing in the
area "rock stingrays" will be 1/1,000,000,000,000. /12=22-10/
Assume that rovers photograph everyone of them, that exists.
We must conclude based on the assumptions and their consequences,
that chances of us to have this existing picture if the object were of
nonbiologial origin, would be less than 10 in pover -12, which is
thousand times less than 1 in 1,000,000,000
Lets assume, that probability of photographing of fish like rock
on Mars is 1, and that there is 1,000 of them in the rovers covered area.
Now, let us focus on the string of similar dots leading to the fish
tail. There is 7 of them.
Lets assume that chances that such line on the simple rock has one
extra dot are 1 in 100. After all, I've never seen even three dots
like this after viewing probably not less than 10,000 rocks /which corresponds to 2 additions/.
The chances we would have a photo of the fish like rock would be than
10 in power -9. /9=12-3/ which is 1 in 1,000,000,000 as expected.
Whichever way you slice it, chances that we would have pictures we now
have if "they all are rocks" theory were correct, are negligible.
Since probabilities do multiply here, chances that we did NOT have
life on Mars are proven to be less than 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000
We are going to use the water pipe object now:
The subobjects we will consider on the water pipe picture are the water string, the pipe, the number 3, and the number 6.
Let us use rare object consideration, in oder to analyze that picture.
A rare object is one that has been observed only ones on the rover pictures.The measured frequency of its appearance on a particular picture is 1/20000 or so.
To be really on the safe side, we will estimate the probability
of its appearance on a particular picture as 1/100.
Now, the probability of four such objects appearing on particular picture,
would be 1/1,000,000
The probability of those objects appearing at particular area, of a size of 1% of the picture,
would be lower by another 1,000,000 times, 1/1,000,000,000,000 .
For those objects to be consistently oriented and attached, chances drop at least another 1,000,000 times, to 1/1,000,000,000,000,000,000
Taking into account (a), (b), and (c), we must conclude that chances to observe those three objects if "they are all rocks" theory were true, would be less than
1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
Which means that chances of life having existed on Mars are better than
8) 8) :P